Today is the Kentucky Derby, one of the biggest horse racing days of the year. The sport of horse racing has been around for centuries, but has been struggling over the past two decades for many reasons. However, the “Triple Crown” races has maintained its constant demand and attendance from consumers.
In Forbes Magazine this week, there was an article regarding betting and the Kentucky Derby. As the article points out, the one close to certain thing at the Kentucky Derby is that the favorite will not win. Over the past 32 derby races, the favorite emerges victorious only 4 times. The article goes onto state “And the betting favorites haven’t even been good bets to place or show.”
The article states the main reason for why favorites tend not to be good bets to win, place, or show is small sample size. These horses are young and have not run in very many races. Therefore, success in early races tends to make these horses the favorite when in reality, there is not much information known about these horses and how they will race against some of the top horses in the country. So if you sit back to watch the derby, remember that history tells you that the outcome of this race is far less certain than the final betting lines.