Where are the fans going in Minnesota?

The University of Minnesota once shared the Metrodome with the Minnesota Vikings of the National Football League (NFL).  As the stadium fell into disrepair, the University decided on a new stadium plan for their college football team, which lead the construction of TCF Bank Stadium, where the Golden Gophers now play their home games.  The stadium has just under 51,000 capacity, and was touted as a more friendly environment to watch college football than the Metrodome.

A new article in the Star Tribune notes that student season ticket sales for Minnesota football games have been on the decline.  In the first year in the stadium they were at 10,000 student ticket sales.  Year two was less than 8,000, year three was less than 6,000, and as it stands as of this moment, there is around 2,000 student season tickets which have been sold for games this year.  This drop has been very drastic, and people are starting to wonder what is going on.  Well team quality has not helped, as the Golden Gophers have been rather inept on the field in the past few years, and many are saying that this is driving people away.

There is also the novelty effect which should be considered.  In the sports economics research it is noted that new stadium often help boost attendance for about 5 years, after which attendance will return to the mean.  In this case, the stadium’s novelty really seems to be wearing off, and with poor performance of the team, it will be interesting to see how sales progress in the future.

Minnesota is in the opposite bag of the University of Missouri, which has sold out football student season tickets for the first time in their history.  The athletic department at Mizzou has said that around 46,500 season tickets have been sold, as the team and university prepare for their first year in the SEC.  People seem very excited about the great ticket sales numbers, but I would caution everyone to think that this will mean giant gains in attendance, as we could be dealing with a novelty effect of the team playing in the most dominant football conference in the country.  It also helps that Mizzou has a home game against Alabama, the defending national champions.

Hat-tip to Professor Tyler Hack in my department who alerted me to this article about Minnesota football attendance.

Mizzou has joined the SEC

Today, the University of Missouri (Mizzou) officially announced they were joining the Southeastern Conference (SEC).  The big move was made official at a press conference on the Mizzou campus in Columbia, Missouri, which happened to be open to the public, and literally right across the street from my office.  I drove in to check it out, and found that the student center where the press conference was held, with statements made by the Missouri chancellor, Mizzou athletic director, SEC commissioner, as well as the president of the University of Florida (an SEC member).

A couple of more notable things from the conference related to finance/economics.

1. Chancellor Deaton noted that the move to the SEC would have an economic impact on the entire state of Missouri.  Those familiar with my arguments, have noted that Mizzou athletics will wonderful, entertaining, and bringing great psychic benefits to the state, probably does not provide any economic impact or benefits to the entire state.  I’ve even argued before that they don’t even have an impact on Kansas City (thought the KC Sports Commission said they did) as they only play a few games in the city a year, and that this is only 2-3 days a year and does not bring in that many overnight visitors.  Missouri plays even fewer games in St. Louis (the other big city in Missouri), so I’m still not sure where all this economic impact is going to come from just by changing conferences.  That is my honest opinion on that matter.

2. The SEC said that Missouri was chosen partly because of their financial strength.  Though, if one looks at operating budgets, Missouri does not compete very well with schools like Florida and Alabama who pull in more revenue in football alone, that Missouri does for all combined revenues.  Of course, there are other schools equivalent to Missouri in terms of the operating budget and revenues in the SEC, so it is not like they will be a weak link in regards to finance.

3. The SEC has a pretty tough football schedule, but Mizzou should probably do decently in football and pretty well in basketball considering the competition as well as revenue spent on recruiting and coaching for teams.  It will be interesting to see how the team does.

4. It is being reported that Missouri will be in the SEC East, which means they will have to travel farther than if they were in the SEC West.  This could mean a lot more travel time for teams, student-athletes and fans for all involved.  I wonder how many of the notoriously well traveling SEC fans will make the long trek to Columbia, MO, especially from Florida, Georgia and South Carolina if Mizzou is in the SEC East.  Additionally, how many Mizzou fans will really make the long trips east?  Might this impact attendance at events (most likely football only)?  Quite possibly, another thing to pay attention to in future years.

Of course in all of this, Mizzou has left the Big 12.  Big 12 interim commissioner Chuck Neinas called Missouri’s move “disappointing” and “a mistake”.  Missouri’s long time rival Kansas was a little more taunting, they posted on the KUNews Twitter feed: “Missouri forfeits a century-old rivalry. We win“.

I just chuckle at that, as the SEC does look to be a bigger revenue pool, with larger media contracts and equal revenue sharing, all of which will most likely boost the revenues that Missouri will receive each year.  Though there is the looming question of whether Missouri will have to pay an exit fee, and if so, how much it will be.

If Mizzou leaves the Big 12, will there be a financial/economic impact on Kansas City?

Today the Kansas City Sport Commission and Convention and Visitor’s Bureau published an open letter to Chancellor Deaton of the University of Missouri to not move away from the Big 12.  The letter basically notes a number of impacts that Mizzou moving away would have on the Kansas City area, including potential financial and economic ramifications.  A link to the full letter can be found: here.

Some snippets from the letter (published on NBC Sports College Football Talk):

“We know that many factors must be considered, including the academic, financial, and alumni relations implications of your decision. And, of course, the history and future of your University’s athletic program.

“That program, as you know, has Midwestern roots more than a century old… We cannot imagine the University of Missouri’s athletics tilting away from this region and the athletic history to which they have contributed so mightily.”

Again, the often visited debate of whether sport has an economic impact on a region.  In this case, it is a curious question.  What economic impact does Mizzou athletics have on Kansas City, a metropolitan area about 2 hours drive from the main campus in Columbia, MO.  In reality, Missouri plays only a few games a year in Kansas City, the big one being the annual rivalry game against Kansas at Arrowhead University.  There is also the Big 12 basketball championships which is about 2-3 days long.  In other words, the Kansas City Sport Commission and CVB believe that Mizzou being in town for least than one week of the year has such a large impact on the city that they shouldn’t leave.  I can buy the arguments about tradition and history to some extent, but I can’t say that Mizzou really has that big of an economic impact on Kansas City to be honest.  Really, the KC Sports Commission should be trying to find a tenant to play sports in the Sprint Center in downtown, which sits pretty much unused except for Arena Football, concerts, and some of the conference championships games for the Big 12.

Another thought is, even if Mizzou leaves the Big 12 for another conference, it doesn’t mean they have to stop the rivalry game between Missouri and Kansas.  In fact, Mizzou has played long time rivalry series with Illinois for many years (though they didn’t play in football this year for the first time in a decade), so it isn’t like leaving the conference means that the rivalry just has to die.

I understand Kansas City’s worries, but I don’t buy the economic/financial argument.